Evaluating the US economy, recession concerns, and investment opportunities, June 2023

Hugh Grieves, co-manager of the Premier Miton US Opportunities fund, shares his perspective on the current state of the US economy, examining factors such as interest rates, inflation, and the possibility of a recession. Hugh highlights the misestimation of the US economy’s momentum and argues that a recession is unlikely given the strong financial position of consumers. He discusses the impact of these factors on interest rates, inflation, and investor strategies, emphasising the need to consider different asset classes in the changing economic landscape.

Hugh also touches on the US debt ceiling – what it is, and its potential implications for companies and investors. Lastly, he explains his investment approach, focusing on predictable and consistent earnings growth in “dull and boring” companies, exemplified by a long-held investment in the air conditioning parts distributor, Watsco.